By: J. Lennox Scott | Chairman and CEO
What you see is what you get!
1 Normal seasonal cycle – just fewer transactions
2 Seasonal ebbs and flow within the yearly housing cycle
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HOUSING
FORECAST
By: J. Lennox Scott | Chairman and CEO
3 Restriction of supply will continue throughout 2024+
4 Sellers will move for the same reasons in 2024
4 Years of Adjustment/Market Stabilization (Great Recession)
6 Years of Growth
2 Years of Adjustment/Market Stabilization
8 Years of Growth
2 Years of Adjustment/Market Stabilization (Dot-com Bubble)
6 Years of Growth
4 Years of Adjustment/Market Stabilization (Great Recession)
6 Years of Growth
2 Years of Adjustment/Market Stabilization
2 Years of Hyper-Growth (Covid Housing Economic Stimulus)
Restart: 3 Years of Adjustment/Market Stabilization (Recession)
Years of Growth
6 Phases of the Yearly Housing Cycle™
Represents Number of New Resale Listings by Month | Typical yearly pattern of new resale listings
January-February: New Year Kickoff
Low point of unsold inventory
Buyers come back into the market in
bigger numbers after holidays
Low number of new resale listings
Sales Activity Intensity™ increases one to two levels
March-April: Spring Market
As more resale listings come on the market,
intensity lowers
May-June: Pre-Summer Market
Highest number of new resale listings and
homes going under contract
Scale: Sales Activity Intensity™
whatcom county
2025
Housing
forecast
Strong Year Ahead for the Housing Market
Residential real estate follows a predictable pattern
10-Year Housing Cycle
HISTORICAL 10-YEAR CYCLES
YEAR 1: 2022
YEAR 2 AND 3: 2023-2024
2025 AND BEYOND
An adjustment year
The market has stabilized
The housing market
will expand as the
U.S. economy expands
CURRENT 10-YEAR CYCLE
1980-1983
1984-1989
1990-1991
1992-1999
2000-2001
2002-2007
2008-2011
2012-2017
2018-2019
2020-2021
2022-2024
2025+++
July-August: Summer Market
Lowers one level of intensity, more new
resale listings and unsold inventory
September-October: Fall Market
High point of unsold inventory
Best selection of homes available until next March
November-December: Winter Market
Winter cleanup, few new resale listings
Percentage of listings under contract (pending) first 30 days
Sales Activity Intensity™ is the percentage of new resale listings that go under contract within
the first 30 days on the market. High intensity creates price support and home price appreciation.
In today’s market, the Sales Activity Intensity™ is highest in the mid-price ranges.
Overall Market: Very Strong/Surge Sales Activity Intensity™ with a higher level of intensity in the mid-price ranges
Regional Forecast after January 1, 2025
Dr. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist of the National Association of REALTORS
Dr. Yun forecasts that home mortgage interest rates will be in the 6% range with sales activity increasing
10% per year for the next two years. At that time, existing home transactions will be back to historical normal levels.
2025 National Sales Forecast
Seller Motivation Scale
Reasons for those needing to sell include:
1 Job transfer
2 Vacant home
3 Estate
4 Household formation change
5 Financial reasons
6 Health
Reasons for those wanting to sell (many with current, large home equity) include:
1 Reposition locally, downsize/upsize
2 Closer to family and friends
3 Purchase in lifestyle, destination market
4 Retirement
It’s okay to buy/sell within the same market timing.
®
®
Remember: If any of your family or friends are thinking of moving and have any questions
or need guidance, please let me know.
1 Job Growth: Close to job centers
2 Home Mortgage Interest Rates: Forecasted to be in the 6% range in 2025
3 Low Housing Supply: In the more affordable and mid-price ranges
4 Energy Costs: Anticipated to lower
5 Lifestyle/Destination Communities: As the major metro areas heat up on the West Coast,
transactions spread throughout the Northwest
Key Factors for Today’s Housing Market